Aspiration – driving a bottom-up economic Financial markets revolution
The power of “aspiration” is driving a global “bottom up economic Financial markets revolution” Creating a historic and lasting huge upward price shift in markets
INTRODUCTION ! ! !
Believe it or not, we are currently living in one of the most prosperous periods in global history, and witnessing one of the greatest bull markets in the history of the world! ! In Australia it may not feel like it. In fact such a statement may seem even a little confusing, but let me explain! ! We are indeed currently living in the midst of the most rapid economic expansion and rise in prosperity in human history all around the globe. This time things are different. This quantum step up in prosperity will last longer, and can be expected to be sustainable as a platform for further good news to develop in coming years. The great news is that there is still plenty more to come, both in terms of global economic prosperity, and for global stock markets. This is why my “Grand Bull Market” forecast of five years ago has proven to be so incredibly accurate. It is based on a set of real world fundamental insights that the consensus economic clique is only at the very beginning of grasping. ! So if I may, allow me to place you ahead of the curve in terms of modern economic thought, so that you can personally reap the benefits, both in your every day life, and hopefully spectacularly through your investments. !
This is a big claim I know, but I think by the time you reach the end of this book, no nonsense, no formulas, no graphs, just plain look out the window common sense economics, you will agree the world may just be a little different and more full of opportunity than any financial journalist or economists has so far alerted you to. This is why this book is free. I simply want to get these ideas, which I consider to be the truth and superior to all the “fear” mongering that has dominated the last near decade or so, out to as many people as possible. ! The future of the world will not be determined by the demographics of an ageing population, as many a fear monger will tell you, but by the “aspiration” of us all, and particularly that of the “new first world” of Asia and Latin America. ! New technology, from smart phones to the internet now empowers all of us to be productive for the full duration of our lives! People are starting businesses and productive lives far earlier in life, and we will all be able, should we wish, to remain productive virtually to our dying days. Rather than an aged population being a burden, this senior part of society will remain a contributor in all kinds of ways, many of which we are yet to discover. This is a very profound historical shift. There will be no problem of an ageing population in the west, if we respond to the “aspiration” challenge of the “new first world” of Asia and Latin America, with a revival, or renaissance if you will, of that great American tradition, entrepreneurship, and even that uniquely Australian tradition of “having a go”. ! The combination of the “aspiring new first world” of Asia and Latin America, with the renaissance of entrepreneurship in the US, along with a recovery generally in Europe, all combine to point to a world of prosperity beyond our wildest dreams. !
When people talk of a slow down in China, they only underline a too common lack of under-standing of how that economy functions, being supply rather than demand driven, many western economists miss the essential point of China, which I will discuss fully in the following pages. ! I intend to show you a view of the world that is more accurate that what you have been hearing and reading in big bank and broker reports, as well as across a broad sweep of the media, and from institutions like the World Bank, IMF, and Reserve Bank of Australia. ! The fact of the matter is you have been seriously mis-lead by anyone who has warned you to stay out of the stock market over the past five years, for your relative wealth has declined sharply against those who have been invested in the stock market, especially if we are talking about the US market, but even in Europe this is acutely true. ! The Australian market has had its challenges and still does. Without acute and bold policy revolution, we may find ourselves absorbed into an overwhelmingly more populous Asian region within the next few decades. Nevertheless there is plenty to hope for in terms of stock prices continuing a Grand Bull Market, even in Australia. ! Let’s be clear. The biggest stock market rally in history started nearly six years ago on the 8th of March 2009, but you barely noticed, ! because every bank, broker, and media outlet, kept telling you the world was in a massive bear market headed into a great depression, and you should “sell the rally”? ! The reality has always been one of great opportunity in a Grand Bull Market, and this has been the case for over half a decade now! !
The biggest money is always to be made when what I call the “consensus/reality divergence” is at its greatest. ! That is, when what people believe to be the case, the consensus, recently this being a world in all kinds of economic trouble, is at variance to what the reality is, which has been an incredibly prosperous and healthy global economy. ! Clearly to be in the latter camp when everyone else is focused on the accepted consensus view, is a great advantage and presents remarkable opportunity when we have had such a great bull market already. We have been buyers when the mainstream have been sellers, yet thinking they were the ones who were contrarian. The herd has confused being contrarian with being bearish. As I have already said however, the good news is that there is still plenty more to come in terms of stock market upside. In fact the Dow Jones Index is on its way to 30,000, for among other things, the consensus is still “fearful”, with not an ounce of “greed” yet priced in. Any state of exuberance remains many years off. This on top of a better than appreciated fundamental foundation, so you start to see where I am coming from and why I am so bullish. ! ! The market is still short, and the fundamentals better than consensus! ! ! That is where we were in March 2009 as well when for the very first and only time I declared the bear market was over. Not only that, on the very same day I stated and we had begun a 5-15 year bull market. We were at the point of maximum negative consensus/reality divergence. My only mistake I believe was not to realize at the time that this bull market, which I called a new “Grand Bull Market”, may in fact last longer, perhaps for 20 years or more! !Given this potential, how shall I put it, it is still a very good idea to be heavily invested, even if you only just started to believe in a prosperous world now. ! Taking a step back for a moment it is important to understand that the flip side of prosperity, scarcity, is what the great majority of people living in Asia and Latin America had previously experienced for many decades. ! Such is the crucible of the modern world economy. !
Out of that scarcity, and oppression by authoritarian regimes, the human spirit of billions is now free to aspire, and make up for decades of lost time. The bottle has been opened and this pent up human force of aspiration has been released. The cork cannot be put back in the bottle. ! The world is now in a historic sweet spot where un-bridled growth and prosperity will continue for many decades to come. There is no other possible outcome from the unique and timely meeting of new technology, globalization, and the returned freedom to aspire! ! This is why the major economic forces of the day cannot be found or understood in the text books of old. A historically unique combination of knowledge and freedom is generating awareness of the right and power to aspire. These are forces that few traditional economists have little if any under-standing of, but they are most assuredly the most dominant economic forces of our time. ! The hallowed halls of Harvard and other schools have been reduced to the click clack of mere historians. ! The greatest investment opportunity of our lives persists, because every day we are bombarded with opinions riveted in thinking that has no relevance whatsoever to the real contemporary economic environment. ! In the following pages I will explain why my “look out the window” fundamental approach, incorporating my “bottom up economic revolution” view of the contemporary world, allowed me to forecast all along that global markets would continue to rally, that there would be no inflation from quantitative easing, that the Euro would hold and continue to be a strong currency, that China would remain a powerhouse, and even that “sequestration” and “tapering” in the USA would result in an accelerating stock market. I forecast such events as much as a year in advance. All when the consensus of the major institutions and banks were of exactly the opposite opinion. It just takes a simple understanding of how the world is today, of how the great wave of human aspiration is the real and dominate driver of the global economy. ! Capitalism by its very nature must expand in order to be healthy, and now in China and greater Asia, as well as Latin America, it has fresh territory in which to do so. Additionally and at last, there is a strong renaissance of entrepreneurship in the USA, and early signs of this development in Europe as well. ! ! The world is in a historical sweet spot where un-bridled growth and prosperity is the most likely outcome.
! ! Subsequently the stock market is severely under-valued, even at all time record highs! ! ! The number one driving force in the world today is the billions of ordinary people now “freely aspiring” to a better life for themselves, their family, their community, and even their nation, irrespective of the wisdom or folly of their governments or global institutions, and with appropriately scant regard to western and ivory tower economists and forecasters. ! The economic frontier is awash with positive and powerful social and technological forces that are fundamentally different to what we have ever seen before. ! My particular brand of economics as I have said is called “look out the window” economics. This is a simple but powerful phrase. It is about recognizing that economics is about human development and as such is changing all the time. Therefore it requires the application of “common sense” to what we see out the window in the real world, all around us, spiced with a hint of forward looking vision, that can give us the best handle on what we can expect our economic world to be like in the future. No amount of backward looking data crunching will ever be able to forecast our rapidly evolving Financial Markets , business and social environments. !
As possibly the first economist in the world to recognise and accurately predict the “Grand Bull Market” of the past five years, I can assure you that the fundamental economic principles outlined in the following pages should prove invaluable to you. As they are indeed applicable to the real world. It is amazing what you can achieve by applying a little commonsense and thinking freely about this new era of economics, rather than being stuck in a text book methodology that is no longer applicable, and can even be harmful. ! There is a great “bottom up” economic revolution sweeping the world, and nothing will stop it. To be successful in business and financial markets you must understand the world we live in from the perspective offered here. The moment you do, everything suddenly makes sense, and the “Grand Bull Market” we are in, can be seen to be naturally going a great deal higher. ! The key decision makers who determine the course of the global economy are no longer the political leaders, central bank governors, or even the largest investors of the west. The key driving force of the global economy is the “aspiration” of the newly empowered working and middle classes the world over, without any strict geographical outline. ! “Confidence” is no longer the key ingredient of capitalism. ! “Aspiration” has well and truly taken over. ! Authoritarianism has largely been defeated and people of all levels of society across the world, while still not equal, have more opportunity than ever before to aspire to a better life for themselves, for their family, and their community. Even their nation. People are on the move and it is a “human tide” of aspiration from west to east, from agrarian to consumer, that is driving an upward self re-enforcing spiral toward ever greater global prosperity. ! Subsequently the stock markets of the world are still at ridiculously cheap levels. The Dow Jones Index will be at 20,000 within a year, and most likely 30,000 within a handful more! ! ! Right now, there is an opportunity for you to intelligently build wealth for generations to come! ! ! What I hope to effectively convey in this book is, 1.The world has changed forever. 2.Some new economic and financial market insights. 3.Where the world is going and how to make the most of It. ! As well as introduce some new concepts to the esoteric world of economic debate, such as the “bottom up economic revolution”, the “New First World” is Asia and Latin America (understanding the newly liberated aspiration states), and the “Old First World” is the USA and Europe. China is a big part of the story, but it is as much a symptom of everything else that is going on, as it is a cause and driver. ! There can be no doubt that it is the success of the “old first world” of the USA and Europe, that has allowed and lead to the rise and new found success of the “new first world” of Asia, Latin America! ! It is also true that Big “C” saved little “c”, China saved capitalism, that the United States will never be number one again, but it will be incredibly even more prosperous as a result, and that Europe is on the mend and will surprise the world! !
There will be, if there are not already, Three Equal Super Powers, and therefore three equal reserve currencies. Those of course self evidently being the US dollar, Euro, and Yuan. ! The “bottom up economic revolution” will drive accelerating growth for everyone for many years if not decades to come. ! While in perfect parallel and co-existence with unbridled prosperity, there will at the same time be little to no inflation. I have been forecasting this since 2009, even through the period when all the old school economists were predicting hyper-inflation as a result of quantitative easing. Some still do? Inflation is really now just a gentle “kitten”, as for the first time in history real Competitive Price Pressures have domesticated this “wildcat” of last century growth periods. All along I have been forecasting strong growth for the USA and China with low inflation persisting, and this makes perfect sense when you see the world in the context of my “bottom up economic revolution” theory. ! ! Clever economic management and improved evolved forms of capitalism currently appearing in Asia and Latin America, mean we all face an extremely prosperous future. One full of opportunity, where we can all aspire, and where hopefully, “aspiration” will never again be artificially restrained. ! ! The bullish view I declared on 9 March 2009, was the correct view, and was contrarian to absolutely every other economist in the world, and where that view came from, was the application of common sense to what is happening in the world today. It most certainly did not come from the application of out of date last century economic texts and mathematical modelling. ! To look beyond taught economic principles, to as I say “look out the window”, and toward the horizon, is the only way to be a functional contemporary economist and worthy market forecaster in this century. ! Please allow me to offer an outline of how the world economy truly operates today, and will operate for several decades to come. None of this is difficult to understand. In fact all of it is simple common sense. ! As well as providing a new economic theory of the world, I will explain how as an individual you can outsmart the world’s biggest investment banks time and time again in the very global financial markets, which they profess unchallenged expertise. Not content there, I will also make economic policy suggestions for Europe, the USA, and Australia, which are bold yet absolutely essential, if the west is to remain a part of the new world Financial Markets game. !